Happy Halloween!

Statistics Quiz

If you randomly choose an answer to this question from the options provided, what is the chance that you'll choose the correct answer?
A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 0%
D) 25%

(H/T Shamus Young)

More Totally Looks Like

Science Discovers Cure for Too Many Brain Cells

I'll just go ahead and leave this here.




Special guest brain cell killing by Barats and Bereta.

The Damien-English Dictionary

The complete vocabulary

• Mama – Mommy (also used to identify an iPhone)
• Dada – Daddy/Donald
• Dadeye – Strawberry
• Nana – Banana
• Appo – Apple
• Ba-ba – Bottle
• Deedy – Mickey/Teddy
• Neeny/Ninny – Minnie
• Bubo – Pluto
• Doody – Goofy
• Daisy – Daisy Duck
• Pete – Pete the Cat
• Ohtoo – Toodles (Oh Toodles!)
• Adda/Addeye – Anthony
• Beeby – Baby (used interchangeably with Anthony for any baby/doll-like object)
• C-A-T Cat – Cat
• Mow/Mowf – Mouse
• Esseh – Elephant
• Giwah – Giraffe
• Bee – Bear
• Meow, Woof, Moo, Baa-a-a, Neigh, Oink, Qua (quack), Do-do-dooo (Cocka-doodle-doo), Twee (tweet, squeak), Roar, Gwah (growl), Ribbit, Hoot, Oo-ah-ah (howler monkey) – Various animal noises
• Ohwy – (Oh Really?) Snowy Owl sound
• Yahwy – (Ya Really!) Horned Owl sound
• Dadum, dadum, dadum, dadum – Shark noises
• Voom voom – Car sound effect
• Choo choo – Train sound effect
• Dwuh – Truck (no F-bombs from our little one)
• Uh-oh, Oh no! – Various exclamations (usually said with hands on side of head or on cheeks)
• Night-night! – Goodnight
• Hi – Hello
• Bye – Goodbye
• Aww – What he says when leaning in for a hug
• Yay! (clapping) – Used after a song
• Wuh, Two, Twee, Fo, Fi, Si, Sehseh, Ay, Ni, Ten, Lehveh, Twev, Tootee, Fotee, Fitee, Sitee, Sehtee, Aytee, Nitee, Twehtee! – Numbers
• Weh, Ownh (nasally grunt at the end), Yewo, Gwee, Boo, Popo, Bwa, Why – Colors
• Whasa? – What's that?
• Hussssssssss – The old woman whispering "hush"
• Up, UP, UP! – Where the Snort takes the Baby Bird
• Boo (short oo) – Book
• Boo! (long oo) – Boo!
• Deedoo! – Peekaboo!
• Yoda, Ahtoo – Star Wars characters
• Bah – Ball
• Bwah – Block
• Soosoo – Circle
• Suhsuhsuh – Cylinder
• Cue – Cube
• Twiah – Triangle
• Eye, No, Mouf, Ee (ear), Heh (head/hair), Chee (cheek), Teef, Knee, Foo, Toe – Body parts
• Fafa, suh, *kiss* – The Sign of the Cross, kissing the Rosary at the end

Further bulletins as events warrant.

QFT

"If you're going to come here and get our food, bedding and clothing, have books and medical supplies for no charge, they need to give back. There's a lot of takers here and they feel entitled." [Emphasis added.]

--Lauren Digioia, member of the OWS Sanitation Comittee, on the vagrants in Zuccotti Park, quoted in the NY Daily News.

(H/T Mike Flynn)

The Art of Non-Argument: How to Debate without Debating

There is a strand of argumentation that I have been seeing very frequently of late, and it is one of which I have become increasingly weary, and would love nothing more than if the entire world just agreed to drop the whole thing for the good of mankind. Rightly speaking, it isn't really even an argument, but rather a non-argument. It is an attempt to do away with argument, stop it cold in its tracks, so that the conversation can't continue.

This non-argument is seen in many different conversations and is stated in many different ways. It comes up in conversations about law, about justice, and about public morality. Its specifics vary from time to time, but it almost always starts with the following statement: "that may be your personal opinion, but...."

In effect this non-argument does not insist that the opposing view is wrong, but rather that the opposing view is irrelevant. It doesn't matter how reasonable, how rational, or how true the opposing view is. All that matters is that the opposing view has no place interfering with the outside world. It is not an attempt to refute the view, or show where the one proposing it has erred. It is a trump card, designed not to engage in debate, but rather to avoid debate altogether. Playing this trump card is simply an attempt to prevent the logic and reason of others from having influence on one's own thought.

And I can easily see why one might be tempted to make this non-argument. As we have seen from the ladder of inference, the premises we take to a conversation—true or false—are personal and based on our experiences. Another person, with another set of experiences, may approach the conversation with a different premise. Since no amount of rational argument or reasonable deduction will convince another person that his experiences did not happen, it is in most cases impossible to change the opinion of the other person. And since the premises—and experiences upon which they are based—are not only not the topic of the conversation, but most frequently are not even brought up, we most often don't even know why we disagree on the topic. The rude person assumes the other person has a defective brain, and calls him stupid or his views irrational. The charitable person, trying to understand how a seemingly intelligent and reasonable person may have arrived at such an unintelligent and unreasonable conclusion, may be tempted to simply invoke the non-argument. That is, "well, the person may have reasons for his belief, but since they are not my reasons, they don't affect me." Hence, the "that may be your personal belief...."

What irks me most about the non-argument, is that, in its attempt to defuse the disagreement charitably, it doesn't seem to have thought itself through very well. For, truly, aren't all our beliefs personal? If one person's argument is not admissible because it's his personal belief, why not any other's? Shouldn't we adopt the post permissible moral code possible? "Well, yes," reply the non-arguers. "To each his own." But then, does that not allow for all sorts of atrocities, from murder, rape, and torture to shoplifting, petty theft and everything in between? "No of course not! You mustn't harm another person!" But... isn't this your personal belief? And since the definition of "person" is one of the very things the non-argument is often used to obfuscate, why should we use your personal definition of personhood over any other? Taking it further, isn't it only your personal belief that personal beliefs should not be forced on others? In its attempt to marginalize the other person's argument, the non-argument marginalizes itself.

The non-argument attempts to reduce law, justice, and morality to the realm of the subjective, such that preference for one morality over another is simply like a preference for chocolate over vanilla. The problem is, I've never met someone who actually treats morality as if its not objective. Those who make the assertion that morality is always a private matter are the ones who are most indignant and most self-righteous at perceived injustices against themselves or others. If all morality is a private matter, subject to personal opinion, then there can be nothing inherently immoral about injustice. On what ground do you protest someone who commits an injustice against another? It may be your personal opinion that his actions are immoral, but who are you to enforce your personal opinions on others?

Of course, I'm being a little unfair here by grouping everyone who makes the non-argument into a group with those who deny objective morality. Many who non-argue are not opposed to the concept of a universal moral law, but rather, simply misunderstand the opposing view. The non-arguer may not understand the reasons behind his opponent's views, and just simply infer that it's for some mysterious unknowable reason. "You only say that because you think the Bible tells you to." But this, again, is a non-argument, because it doesn't address the actual reasons behind the view, just the inferred reasons. It ignores the appeals to natural law and objective truth, and instead simply attacks a strawman.

Despite these obvious (to me) problems with the non-argument, I continue to see it used whenever someone doesn't want to admit a view contrary to their own into the debate. Whenever someone takes a stand for traditional marriage, the non-argument will be made "that's just your personal opinion about marriage! You can't force that on others!" Whenever someone says that it is an injustice to deny the unborn their rights, someone else will non-argue "but that's merely your opinion on personhood! You can't deny a woman her right to choose!" Whenever someone explains the moral difficulties of euthanasia, the non-argument appears, "keep your morality off my body!" In none of the cases is the non-arguer actually making a case about the nature of marriage, the rights of the human person, or the dignity of human life. All he is saying is that all such arguments are irrelevant.

World of Warcraft: Attack of the Pandas

Following on the heels of their success with 2004's hit World of Warcraft, Blizzard Entertainment upped the stakes. For their 2007 expansion The Burning Crusade, they introduced the corrupted demon-hunter Illidan Stormrage, Lord of the Black Temple.

You are not prepared!

To up the ante even further, for 2008's Wrath of the Lich King, the brought out the Lich King, Arthas, ruler of the Scourge: a race of undead monstrosities, who terrorize the people of Azeroth.

His frozen heart lies beneath the tundra of Northrend.

And building upon that, 2010's Cataclysm introduced Deathwing to the world, a dragon aspect consumed with hatred for all that lives, and whose explosive release unleashed a wave of destructive force across all the world.

The world shall burn.

So what can Blizzard possibly introduce to top this incredible lineup of menacing villains? What is the next horror the denizens of Azeroth face?

Giant Pandas!

Their superpower is the Power of Love.

Hateful Kitty

Kathleen De Vere, of my favorite Commodore 64-based Canadian sketch comedy group "Loading Ready Run", has seen fit to draw an entry to her webcomic "Things My Cat Hates" based on a suggestion I sent her.

You should go check it out by clicking here.

Or here.

Or here, if you like to wait until the last minute, but that will be your last chance.

Of course, Kathleen, herself, had one of her tweets used in an Old Spice internet response ad last year. For those keeping track, this gives me an Old Spice Man Your Man Could Smell Like index of two.

(OK, I lied. This is really your last chance. For reals.)

Premises, Premises

So, I've had the idea for this post for a while, but haven't been able to put it in words. I had planned writing a long, rambling, boring post, but I realized it could probably be said better shorter.

Also, it helps that SF author, statistician, amateur philosopher and historian, and all around Cool Guy Michael Flynn has done the bulk of the work for me. Recently, he wrote a piece on the "ladder of inference". You should go read it. No, seriously. Go. I'll wait.

All done? To summarize for those too lazy to read, the ladder of inference is basically the process we mentally apply whenever presented with facts. It goes like this:

1. I observe objectively.
2. I select data from what I observer.
3. I add meaning to what I have selected.
4. I make assumptions based on the meaning I have added.
5. I draw conclusions, which prompt feelings.
6. I adopt beliefs about the world.
7. I take action based on my beliefs and feelings.

Now, there is a loop, called the Reflexive Loop from step 6 to step 2: our beliefs influence what data we select from our observations. This is why two people can be presented with the same set of data and draw completely different conclusions about it. Based on their beliefs, developed from previous experiences, people will notice different things, infer different meanings, and make different assumptions from the same things.

For our purposes, I will refer to these beliefs that influence our observations and actions as "premises". These are not, of course, philosophical premises in the sense of "first principles", since they are based on prior experiences. But, for a given situation, they are the things we assume are a given, and not topics for discussion.

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